Statement on the Economy – 2025
Government of the Republic of Newfoundland · Ministry of Finance · 3 November 2025
Executive Summary
Newfoundland concludes 2025 as a sovereign, high-income North Atlantic economy built on clean energy, marine resources,
and advanced industry. Nominal GDP is estimated at USD 83.0 billion (~N$ 87.4 billion at
an indicative 1 NFD = 0.95 USD). Real growth is +3.2%, CPI inflation
2.8%, and unemployment 6.9%. Government revenue (~37% of GDP) and expenditure (~35%) produce a
small structural surplus. The Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) stands near USD 235 billion.
Strategic pillars in 2025 are (i) Energy — hydro exports and full control of offshore oil/LNG;
(ii) Marine Economy — sustainable fishery and maritime industries; (iii) Mining & Materials —
nickel, iron, and rare earths with domestic refining; and (iv) Technology & Data — 1.5 GW
of hydro-powered cloud computing and expanding digital exports. Priorities for 2026–2030 include doubling hydrogen capacity,
commissioning new REE separation, and expanding subsea cables and power links with neighbouring Canada, the U.S., and Europe.
Overview
Since 1949, Newfoundland has exercised full control over its defence, foreign affairs, and economic policy as a founding member of NATO and, since 1972, as the Republic of Newfoundland.
Strategic management of natural resources, disciplined fiscal policy, and social investment have produced one of the
most stable and sustainable economies in the North Atlantic. Hydropower from Labrador’s rivers, seafood from its
Exclusive Economic Zone, and critical minerals from its ancient geology combine with technological innovation
to sustain growth and environmental stewardship.
Macro Performance and Structure
| Indicator | 2025 | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP | USD 83.0 billion | Rounded central estimate |
| Real GDP growth | +3.2% | Energy and tech-led expansion |
| CPI inflation | 2.8% | Within 2–3% target band |
| Unemployment | 6.9% | Gradually declining |
| Exchange rate | 1 NFD ≈ 0.95 USD | Managed float ±5% |
| Government revenue | ~37% of GDP | Includes energy royalties |
| Government expenditure | ~35% of GDP | Infrastructure and social spending |
| SWF assets | ~USD 235 billion | Rule-based draw ≤3.5% |
| Public debt | ~25–28% of GDP | Net of SWF holdings |
Energy Sector (Hydro, Oil & Gas, Hydrogen)
Energy remains a cornerstone of Newfoundland’s economic and fiscal strength.
Hydroelectric generation of 9.8 GW provides complete renewable coverage for domestic demand and enables
large-scale exports through subsea and overland interconnections to Europe, neighbouring Canada, and New England.
Offshore oil fields and LNG facilities, entirely under Newfoundland ownership, continue to generate critical export earnings.
| Subsector | 2025 Output | Value Added | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hydroelectric | ~55 TWh | ~USD 7.6 B | Exports to EU, Canada, New England |
| Crude oil | ~400,000 bpd | ~USD 17.9 B | Full state royalties and taxes |
| LNG exports | 12 Mt/year | ~USD 2.1 B | Placentia Bay terminal |
| Green hydrogen | Pilot exports | ~USD 1.4 B | Nain & Avalon facilities ramping up |
Policy and Infrastructure
- Maintain 100% renewable domestic power; expand export certification under Guarantees of Origin.
- Accelerate hydrogen roadmap: 1.5 Mt/year export capacity targeted by 2030.
- Stabilization rule channels oil windfalls to SWF; maintain fiscal neutrality through the cycle.
Mining, Precious Metals, and Rare Earth Elements
Newfoundland’s mineral wealth underpins industrial output and exports. Regulated under the
Newfoundland Mining Act (2016), the sector adheres to reclamation, water-protection, and electrification mandates.
Extraction is powered by hydroelectricity; refining and smelting increasingly use hydrogen, making the sector carbon neutral.
Principal Regions
- Voisey’s Bay–Nain: Ni/Co/Cu; ~240k t refined concentrate; exports to EU, Japan.
- Labrador Trough: 40+ Mt/yr iron ore; Europe, Asia, and U.S. buyers.