Statement on the Economy – 2025
Government of Newfoundland · Ministry of Finance and Economic Development · 3 November 2025
Executive Summary
Newfoundland concludes 2025 as a sovereign, high-income Atlantic economy built on clean energy, marine resources,
and advanced industry. Nominal GDP is estimated at USD 83.0 billion (~N$ 87.4 billion at
an indicative 1 NFD = 0.95 USD). Real growth is +3.2%, CPI inflation
2.8%, and unemployment 6.9%. Government revenue (~37% of GDP) and expenditure (~35%) produce a
small structural surplus. The Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) stands near USD 235 billion.
Strategic pillars in 2025 are (i) Energy — hydro exports and full control of offshore oil/LNG;
(ii) Marine Economy — sustainable fishery and maritime industries; (iii) Mining & Materials —
nickel, iron, and rare earths with domestic refining; and (iv) Technology & Data — 1.5 GW
of hydro-powered cloud computing and expanding digital exports. Priorities for 2026–2030 include doubling hydrogen capacity,
commissioning new REE separation, and expanding subsea cables and power links with Canada, the U.S., and Europe.
Overview
Since 1949, Newfoundland has exercised full sovereignty over its territory, waters, and continental shelf.
Strategic control of natural resources, disciplined fiscal policy, and social investment have produced one of the
most stable and sustainable economies in the North Atlantic. Hydropower from Labrador’s rivers, seafood from its
Exclusive Economic Zone, and critical minerals from its ancient geology combine with technological innovation
to sustain growth and environmental stewardship.
Macro Performance and Structure
| Indicator | 2025 | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Nominal GDP | USD 83.0 billion | Rounded central estimate |
| Real GDP growth | +3.2% | Energy and tech-led expansion |
| CPI inflation | 2.8% | Within 2–3% target band |
| Unemployment | 6.9% | Gradually declining |
| Exchange rate | 1 NFD ≈ 0.95 USD | Managed float ±5% |
| Government revenue | ~37% of GDP | Includes energy royalties |
| Government expenditure | ~35% of GDP | Infrastructure and social spending |
| SWF assets | ~USD 235 billion | Rule-based draw ≤3.5% |
| Public debt | ~25–28% of GDP | Net of SWF holdings |
Energy Sector (Hydro, Oil & Gas, Hydrogen)
Energy remains the cornerstone of Newfoundland’s economic and fiscal strength.
Hydroelectric generation of 9.8 GW provides complete renewable coverage for domestic demand and enables
large-scale exports through subsea and overland interconnections to Europe, Atlantic Canada, and New England.
Offshore oil fields and LNG facilities, entirely under Newfoundland ownership, continue to generate critical export earnings.
| Subsector | 2025 Output | Value Added | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hydroelectric | ~55 TWh | ~USD 7.6 B | Exports to EU, Atlantic Canada, New England |
| Crude oil | ~400,000 bpd | ~USD 17.9 B | Full state royalties and taxes |
| LNG exports | 12 Mt/year | ~USD 2.1 B | Placentia Bay terminal |
| Green hydrogen | Pilot exports | ~USD 1.4 B | Nain & Avalon facilities ramping up |
Policy and Infrastructure
- Maintain 100% renewable domestic power; expand export certification under Guarantees of Origin.
- Accelerate hydrogen roadmap: 1.5 Mt/year export capacity targeted by 2030.
- Stabilization rule channels oil windfalls to SWF; maintain fiscal neutrality through the cycle.
Mining, Precious Metals, and Rare Earth Elements
Newfoundland’s mineral wealth underpins industrial output and exports. Regulated under the
Newfoundland Mining Act (2016), the sector adheres to reclamation, water-protection, and electrification mandates.
Extraction is powered by hydroelectricity; refining and smelting increasingly use hydrogen, making the sector carbon neutral.
Principal Regions
- Voisey’s Bay–Nain: Ni/Co/Cu; ~240k t refined concentrate; exports to EU, Japan.
- Labrador Trough: 40+ Mt/yr iron ore; Europe, Asia, and Ontario buyers.
- Belle Isle–Baie Verte: ~35 t gold, ~60 t silver; closed-loop extraction.
- Happy Valley REE Belt: Nd, Dy, Tb; turbines & electronics supply chains.
- Western Basin: Molybdenum, graphite; alloys and battery materials.
2025 Contribution
- Direct VA: ~USD 11.0 B; Employment: 55,000+
- Downstream refining: ~USD 1.2 B
- Export partners: EU (38%), Canada (22%), U.S. (18%), Japan/Korea (14%), others (8%)
Fisheries and Marine Economy
Newfoundland’s fisheries are administered as a strategic national resource. Since the 1950s, science-based quotas
and rigorous EEZ enforcement (~2.5 million km²) have sustained biomass and maritime employment.
The period known as the Fish War of the late twentieth century established the enforcement framework still in place today:
robust Coast Guard operations, aerial surveillance, and firm defense of fishing rights. The modern industry integrates
wild catch, aquaculture, processing, and marine biotechnology.
| Segment | 2025 Output / Scale | Value Added | Partners |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wild-catch | Cod, haddock, crab, shrimp, scallops | USD 6.8 B | Canada, EU, UK, U.S. |
| Processing | Premium fillets, frozen/canned, by-products | USD 2.2 B | EU, U.S. |
| Aquaculture | Salmon, mussels; electrified hatcheries | USD 1.5 B | Canada, EU |
| Licences & EEZ access | Limited foreign quotas | USD 0.8 B | Bilateral quotas |
| Marine biotech & logistics | Enzymes, omega-oils, cold-chain | USD 0.5 B | Nordic, Canada |
Total marine value-added (2025): ~USD 11.8–12.0 B; Employment: 70,000+.
Governance and Conservation
- Rotational quotas; AI-based stock assessments; ecosystem management.
- Enforcement doctrine rooted in post–Fish War capabilities and joint patrols.
- Value-added processing incentives and coastal development programs.
- Joint research initiatives with Canadian, EU, and UK institutions.
Forestry and Natural Environment
Newfoundland’s forestry industry integrates economic output with conservation. Sustainable forestry practices,
guided by the Forestry and Habitat Management Act, require replanting ratios of at least 2:1 and watershed protection.
The sector supplies timber, pulp, engineered wood, and biomass fuels domestically and abroad.
- Value added (2025): ~USD 3.2 B; Employment: 18,000
- Products: FSC-certified lumber, engineered wood, pulp and paper, bio-pellets
- Exports: Canada, U.S., UK, and EU demand for low-carbon materials
- Environment: river-basin protection linked to hydro infrastructure
Technology, Manufacturing, and Innovation
Newfoundland’s innovation economy merges hydro-powered compute, advanced manufacturing, and creative industries.
The Labrador Data Corridor hosts ~1.5 GW of clean data capacity serving North America and Europe.
The Avalon Peninsula supports aerospace, film, and digital sectors, while manufacturing focuses on battery materials,
specialty alloys, and green-tech components.
Combined value-added across technology and manufacturing is estimated at USD 7.4 billion in 2025,
employing approximately 40,000 workers. Aviation, port logistics, and undersea telecom cables enhance Newfoundland’s connectivity
and service exports across the Atlantic region.
Fiscal and External Accounts
External accounts remain strongly positive. Trade and current balances show sustained surpluses driven by
energy, minerals, fisheries, and data services. Fiscal rules prevent resource volatility from affecting
public finances. The Newfoundland Dollar operates as a managed float, supported by deep reserves and the SWF.
- Exports: ~USD 45 B; Imports: ~USD 23 B → Trade surplus: ~USD 22 B
- FX reserves: ~USD 110 B; SWF assets: ~USD 235 B
- Public debt: ~25–28% of GDP (prudential ceiling